Black-Scholes期权模型在新药研发项目价值评估中的应用

    Application of Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model to Valuation of New Drug R&D Projects

    • 摘要: 目的 研究实物期权下的Black-Scholes期权定价模型(简称B-S模型)在新药研发项目价值评估中的应用。方法 采用比较法分析传统评价方法中的成本分析法、市场比较法、折现现金流法及实物期权法的优缺点,分别运用DCF法和B-S模型计算新药研发项目价值,并将其结果进行比较。结果 B-S模型计算得到的项目价值比传统DCF法的计算值更大。结论 实物期权中的B-S模型方法在评价项目价值时更能体现项目潜在的管理灵活性价值,其中参数的选取对结果影响较大。

       

      Abstract: OBJECTIVE To research the application of Black-Scholes pricing model (B-S model) of real options in the evaluation of new drug R&D projects. METHODS The comparison method was applied to analyze advantages and disadvantages between real options and traditional methods, such as cost-based method, market comparable method and DCF. The DCF method and B-S model were used to calculate the value of new drug R&D projects respectively, and the results were compared. RESULTS The value of new drug R&D project calculated by B-S model was larger than that of DCF. CONCLUSION B-S model can reflect the underlying flexibility value of projects effectively, and the choice of parameters will have a great impact on the results.

       

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